2016 Hurricane Season Most Active Since 2012

5/22/2016 (Permalink)

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The 2016 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be the most active since 2012, according to a forecast released Friday, May 20, 2016 by The Weather Company, an IBM Business.

A total of 14 named storms, eight hurricanes and three major hurricanes are forecast during the coming season.

This is greater than the 30-year historical average of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes for the Atlantic basin. A major hurricane is one that is Category 3 or stronger on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

The Weather Company's forecast also calls for a slightly higher number of named storms and hurricanes than an outlook issued earlier in April by Colorado State University (CSU) that is headed by Dr. Phil Klotzbach. That forecast said the Atlantic was expected to see 13 named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes.

An important note about both outlooks is that the seasonal forecast numbers do include Hurricane Alex, a rare January hurricane that struck the Azores a few months back. Though the official hurricane season spans the months from June through November, occasionally we can see storms form outside those months.

Goodbye El Nino.. Hello La Nina

The strong El Niño we saw this winter continues to fade away and may transition to its counterpart La Niña by this fall. Of course, if this handoff from El Niño to La Niña conditions occurs, it could happen during the middle of the 2016 hurricane season.

Klotzbach said that the transition from El Niño to neutral or La Niña conditions during the 2016 hurricane season makes this particular April hurricane outlook very uncertain.

The transition could cause the early part of the hurricane season to be less active while the second half of the season may more active, according to The Weather Company's outlook.